评论来自 98101

Although the drop rate may seem low, it really isn't. Everytime i have made a new charecter, i get one in a drop in about 10-16 kills.
*note* it may not be this specific color

评论来自 svetfirt

(Longwinded, have a cup of coffee...)
As Furieslock mentioned above, I believe there is definitely something fishy about the drop rate for these bags. When you are a low level toon, there is a quite high probability that these bags will drop for you. But once you get above a certain level (or some other hidden criteria), this bag seems to stop dropping for good (thus the "insanely low drop rate").
I'm not sure what the criteria is - it could also be the number of bags you have.
My guess though is that it's your level; I'd guess it stops when the mobs turn gray to you.
If anybody has figured out precisely what is going on, I'd love to hear about it..

My theories are based on two things:
- I have lots of alts, and they invariably get "many" of these drops (ie more than "0.1%" would account for).
- Out of sheer insanity/curiosity, I've tried killing very very many Mana Wyrms (with a higher level toon), and can never get this bag to drop again...(? anybody experienced otherwise?)

- sometimes I speculate whether Blizz ties some drop rates to "time spent" (ie so if you kill stuff for 30 minutes, you get about the same % of stuff - if you kill twice that number of mobs in 30 minutes, you still get the same % of rare drops?)

I'm not superstitious - in general I expect drop rates to be uniform dice rolls for each kill (and I like Occam's razor :-) -
but we already know some drops are context-dependent.
E.g. some of the "drops that starts a quest" will continue to drop, until you've done the quest. And similarly with "collect X drops of Y " - Y stops dropping, when you've collected at least X items.
And so far these dropped bags seem to display odd behaviours.."people find them when they need them..." (at low level it seems).
(I'm also aware of the fallacy "it's cloudless when there is a full moon" - people post when they observe a rarity - "I won the lottery!" - but this matches my own observations).
I've put this comment on all variations of the bag.

(PS: The reason I'm interested in this, is because:
If something like the above is going on - which _other_ items may be affected by similar stuff.. I don't like to think that something I want to drop is not uniformly distributed...)

评论来自 lordlight

I just received this from H COS in the chest at the end. I was beyond confused.

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